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US Demographic Peak Of 2000
The US enjoyed united demographic uptrends from 1980 to 2000 and since then united downtrends. Here are a collection of charts that show the powerful reality of this influence. 1. Risk assets markets...
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Population, GDP, Debt, War And Solar Variation
On a longer term view, these all fit together, and understanding their relationships can help us predict what’s coming. The grand solar minima correlate with clusters of war: War clusters / cycles The...
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End Of 2014
I’m back and refreshed. Thanks for all the messages, and for all the comments in my absence. Here is the big picture. 1. Primary shift to defensives and away from risk occurred as of January 2014, as...
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The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 1
This is a complex time to trade the financial markets. We are trying to forecast against a backdrop of prolonged ultra low rates, collective quantitative easing programmes, united demographic...
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The Conundrum Of Our Times Part 2
Let’s now draw in the solar cycle. Here are US equity valuations by Q ratio versus solar maxima over the last century. A relation becomes apparent with secular lows and highs. Source: D Short We can...
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Comparison to 1929
Hat tips to Mark, John Li and Chien Jen. So what’s similar to 1929? A stock market mania to extreme valuations. Source: D Short A similar low intensity solar cycle. Source: Chien Jen Stock market...
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Gold And Gold Miners
Gold as an investment: not straight forward. It was the original money, valued for its rare, precious and indestructible qualities. Fiat money then took over, but convertible to gold. Now, fiat money...
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Increasing Validation
Testing several key theories here real time, it’s been a slow process, but patience is being rewarded. Firstly, that demographic forces are more powerful than central bank actions. Look what’s happened...
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The Big Picture
Financial markets are the function of swells and shrinkages in buyers and leverage, brought about principally by demographics and sunspot cycles, additionally with the latter influencing the former....
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Just The Facts
US earnings: blended earnings growth stands at -2.2%, compared to an expected -5.2% before reporting began. So that’s quite a beat, and may account for some market fuel, but still negative. Blended...
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